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Free Play for Sunday, May 19, 2013

Play: St Louis (Gast) -129 Milwaukee (Lohse) 2:15 PM EST

The St Louis Cardinals are just rock solid and keep on keepin’ on. The Red Birds are 7-3 in their L10 and own the second best record in baseball at 27-14 overall. They’ve owned the Brewers this year going 7-2 including Saturday’s 6-4 extra inning loss which brings into play the Cardinal’s 11-3 record off a loss. John Gast makes his second career start for St Louis. He was not all that impressive despite getting a 10-4 win in his debut but he is a lefty and figures to be better here. The Brewers are not very good period. Take out a nine game winning streak in late April and they are 8-24 in their other 32. Milwaukee is 2-8 in their L10, 4-12 vs southpaws this year and just 3-13 against winning records. Kyle Lohse will have extra motivation in facing his ex-mates but he’s 0-2 with a 5.69 ERA in his L3 starts that includes a 6-1 loss to wonderboy Shelby Miller back on May 3rd. The Cardinal offense is mashing at better than .275 in their L7 and averaging better than five runs a game. Can’t find very much to even sniff at the Brewers so we’ll lay the 30 cents thinking that St Louis will easily take the final game of this three game set.

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Sportsbetting21′s analysis and prognostications for the 138th running of the Preakness Stakes

Kentucky Derby winner Orb will lead nine horses to post today as the even-money favorite in today’s 138th running of the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico. He’ll face five horses that he thrashed in the Derby and three newcomers who figure to like the shorter distance but in the end it is impossible to look past Orb.

The strapping son of Malibu Moon was anything bit a natural taking four races to break his maiden but ….. once he got it all figured out, he’s been impossible to beat. Orb has won five straight including The Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby preps for Louisville and basically won for fun two weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Despite the relatively short field and a perceived lack of competition, this could be the toughest of the Triple Crown races to win.

Orb drew the dis-advantageous post No.1 that has produced just one winner (Tabasco Cat 1994) in this race over the past five decades. You can watch Orb win the Fountain of Youth Stakes from the rail by clicking here Weather is expected to be mostly sunny with a chance of scattered showers but that should have little to no effect on Orb who showed he was more than able to handle a wet cuppy track in the Derby. Tired coming back on two weeks ??? His effortless bullet :47.1 workout Saturday was the talk of Pimlico. Orb looks to be getting better.

Everything seems to be going Orb’s way and this just might be the year we have that elusive first Triple Crown winner since 1978. The horse is bred to go forever and we saw that at Louisville when Orb basically got away 16th, circled the field going up the back stretch and then drew off in the stretch. He has excellent tactical speed to get away wherever he needs to be and has a Hall of Fame trainer in Shug McGaughey and red-hot joeck in Joel Rosario who has already won the $10 million dollar Dubai Cup with Animal Kingdom and the Derby with Orb.

Sportsbetting21s pick in the Preakness is Orb on top of Oxbow, Mylute and Will Take Charge. Here is how we think the race will go. At the start, look for Titletown Five, Govenor Charlie and Goldencents to show early speed with Titletown Five on the lead and Goldencents on his shoulder. As the speed sorts itself out coming out of the first turn, look for Orb to be running easily near the back of the pack. Depending on the fractions with figure to be moderate here (46-47, 1:11-1:12) look for Orb to start making his way to the front possibly following the cover of Oxbow and Will Take Charge. In the final turn, look for orb to be perfectly positioned with an easy lane home and just outrun Mylute and Oxbow.

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